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Yesterday I wrote about what the Coroner found in his report into Man Haron Monis. Today I’ll focus on what should have been found. Triple failure and three key truths, that’s what.
This is first the truth about Man Haron Monis.
He was a high-definition train-wreck that occurred over almost 20 years on big television screens set up in the immigration, justice and intelligence systems.
The train-wreck was so big, so noisy, so obvious and so continual that these three systems, allegedly there to prevent such disasters, instead became comfortable living with all the indicators of impending tragedy.
And so nothing happened. Not even after the guns started firing.
This is the second, even more concerning truth about Man Haron Monis.
He was not an isolated example. The failures that allowed him to get away with murder are also clearly visible in numerous other cases. Ordinary Australians can see this. But the apparatus of the state does not.
Which leads to the third and most damning truth about Man Haron Monis.
Neither of the two key reports into his actions (the January 2015 Martin Place Siege joint investigation by the New South Wales and Commonwealth government and the May 2017 Coroner’s report into the Lindt Café siege inquest) has even come close to identifying the multiple systemic failures that allowed this complete cluster to occur.
Let’s go through these three systemic failures.
The two reports detail a litany of concerns over Monis’ arrival in Australia:
- Monis lied on his visa application that he was lawyer and there is no record of whether Immigration staff ever checked his claims.
- On arrival in Australia in 1996, Monis changed his story and advised Customs that he was a carpet salesman.
- A week after his arrival, ASIO received adverse intelligence about Monis and he was placed under investigation.
- The next day Monis was placed on a ‘Movement Alert List’.
- Despite these concerns, Monis applied for a protection visa shortly after arrival in Australia and was granted a bridging visa while he claim was investigated.
- Immigration officers doubted Monis’ claims and credibility regarding his status as a refugee – upon detailed questioning his answers were not coherent and his story changed.
- ASIO advised Immigration twice in early 1999 that Monis was a risk to Australian security – he should have been detained at this point but was not.
Despite all of this, ASIO changed its assessment on Monis and he was eventually granted citizenship in 2004. As the Martin Place Siege report notes, this occurred even though it appears that:
“…very few, or no, checks were made to ascertain the legitimacy of Monis’ application.”
Of interest, Amnesty International Australia supported his claim for protection and he was allowed to work as a security guard with access to weapons even after ASIO assessed him to be a security risk.
Given this background, you’d be forgiven for coming to the conclusion that letting Monis into the country was a mistake. But you don’t write the reports and you’d also be wrong.
The Coroner’s report detailed Monis’ immigration history but made no findings or recommendations as it was outside the scope of this investigation.
Incredibly, the Martin Place Siege report found:
“Decisions made to grant Monis visas and Australian citizenship were made in accordance with the laws”
Even more frustratingly, it also stated that:
“If the Monis situation presented itself again today, it seems likely that a visa and citizenship would still be granted.”
As a remedy, the Martin Place Siege report recommended that Immigration should ‘better assess’. That’s like telling a school kid to try harder – hardly useful at all. It also asked for policy and legislative changes that continued to ‘enable an open society’.
So don’t expect any change and don’t bother mumbling about learning from mistakes. Clearly that’s an offensive in our open, diverse and multicultural society.
It’s clear that there was an immigration failure with Monis. But it’s also clear that this is apparent to everyone but those running the joint. More importantly, the immigration failure did not occur due to a breakdown in the system – it occurred because the system doesn’t even work at all.
Monis was allowed in lawfully in 1996 and he would still be allowed in today. This train wreck was always going to leave the station.
And so have others. The immigration system continues to protect fake Iranian refugees who have holidayed in the nation that they claim to have fled from. And more than 7,500 asylum seekers living in Australia have not lodged any paperwork to support their claims. This systemic failure is draining the coffers and leading to bloodshed.
All this goes to show that the immigration failure over Monis was not an isolated case. It was standard practice.
Monis had a criminal record that takes some beating:
- In 2011, he was charged with intimidating his ex-wife but the following year he was found not guilty. Monis later arranged her execution.
- In 2013, he was convicted of 10 counts of using a carriage service to cause offence, menace or harass the families of dead Australian soldiers in Iraq and terrorism victims in Indonesia. He was sentenced to 300 hours of community service and placed on a two-year good behaviour bond.
- Later that year, he was charged as an accessory to the murder of his ex-wife. She was doused in petrol and stabbed 18 times by Monis’ girlfriend, Amirah Droudis. Monis arranged an elaborate alibi which included deliberately crashing into a police car at the time the murder was to take place.
- Just before the murder, Monis insured his property. He then claimed damage from the fire that snuffed out the life of his ex-wife, although this claim was later abandoned. It seems no charges were ever laid over this attempted fraud.
- In 2014, he was charged with 3 counts of sexual and indecent assault. This was later raised to 40 charges spanning the period 2002 (before he was granted citizenship) and 2010, with at least one charge relating to an assault that occurred while he was on bail for carriage service offences.
Unsurprisingly, Monis received legal aid to assist with his defences to all charges against him. Thank you for paying your taxes.
This money was well-spent if you think completely embarrassing the legal system is worth it, no matter the cost. It repeatedly allowed Monis to obtain bail and he remained on bail until the siege.
- Monis was on bail throughout proceedings into the offensive letters he sent to the families of Australian soldiers (2009-2013).
- He obtained bail in relation to the accessory to murder charge on 12 December 2013.
- He obtained bail in relation to the sexual assault charges on 26 May 2014.
- After additional sexual assault charges were laid against Monis, there was no attempt by the prosecution to revoke bail and he was not arrested.
Monis should never have been allowed to walk free after the accessory to murder charge. But he did. And then he did again after the sexual assault offences. And by then he was walking free so often that no one could bother going after him at all – the NSW Police gave up arresting him.
It was another systemic failure that allowed an out of control train to hurtle along at dangerous speeds.
To be fair to both reports, this failure has been recognised and recommendations have been made that will ‘hopefully’ address this problem.
I say ‘hopefully’ because it is obvious that the failure is not so much in the laws or processes, but in the culture and attitudes of the justice system. ‘Progressive’ and ‘compassionate’ judges continually let Australians down.
We’ve had the infamous case of Jill Meagher (raped and murdered by a criminal already on parole for rape). We’ve seen a magistrate throw out charges of child-abduction against a registered sex offender from Afghanistan on the basis of cultural differences. And we’ve groaned at the grossly inadequate four and half year jail term given to a Queensland man who was fundraising for the Islamic State.
He’ll be out on the streets before the war is over.
It happens over and over again.
It’s even in my family. My aunty is a Victorian judge who recently declined to jail an Apex Gang-linked Sudanese man after he used an axe to terrorise and steal more than $200,000 worth of jewellery from two Melbourne stores last year. Her reason: the robberies occurred after he had smoked ice for only the ‘second’ time and because he was supported by respected members of his community.
Most Australians would say so what. But judges take these things more seriously than the damage done to the community.
That’s why one can only hope that the Lindt Café reports will change things. The evidence so far is not encouraging.
Apart from the adverse assessments regarding his immigration to Australia and his criminal background, this is what the intelligence system knew about Monis:
- In May 2008, the Australian Federal Police (AFP) monitored a report on his website advocating suicide attacks. The AFP went on to note that his extremist rhetoric was increasing.
- Two months later, ASIO noted that Monis’ website may ‘inspire others to undertake acts relevant to security’.
- Later that year, the NSW Police assessed that Monis was undertaking ‘nuisance activities’ that were likely to continue and may escalate.
- Around the same time, the AFP identified that Monis appeared to be ‘moving beyond praise for terrorist acts to urging participation in them’.
- In 2009, ASIO examined Monis’ letters and found that they may constitute a threat.
This was a full five years before the attack. Yet despite the fact that Monis’ website supported terrorist attacks and even appeared to encourage participation in them, the Coroner’s report notes this:
“In November 2009, the AFP in conjunction with the TIS, ASIO, and the ADF concluded that Monis did not pose a threat to national security’.
Strange as it may be for someone who is assessed as not posing a threat to national security, the monitoring continued. It is proof that the assessment was not worth the paper it was written on:
- In 2012, a NSW Police report listed Monis on a 15 page list of individuals who may have posed a threat to a visit by the Prince of Wales.
- The same year the AFP monitored Monis’ attendance at the first of many Hizb ut Tahrir protests or functions.
- In 2013, the AFP identified Monis as having a potential connection to the conflict in Syria.
- A year before the siege, NSW Police assessed that Monis had the potential to become a terrorist.
- The AFP continued to monitor Monis in 2014, noting his ongoing connection to Hizb ut Tahrir.
Then, just a couple of weeks after Monis declared his allegiance to the Islamic State on his webpage, as the murder and sexual assault cases closed in on him and while the High Court was throwing out his last-ditch attempt to appeal the convictions for carriage service offences, a flurry of reporting arrived.
Between 9 and 12 December 2014, 18 reports were made to the National Security Hotline (NSH) about Monis and his Facebook page, as well as his general background and criminal history. It was a massive spike in reporting and, to be honest, must have been very close what a ‘Fixated Threat Assessment Centre’ report into Monis may have looked like.
ASIO is apparently not much chop at these so the Coroner has recommended a whole new intelligence centre be established to do them. I reckon the government should save some money and just outsource it to whoever it was in the community that provided this service for free.
The Coroner’s report states that ASIO investigated these reports and found nothing:
“These preliminary assessments concluded that the posts did not indicate capability or intent to engage in terrorism or politically motivated violence.”
It goes on to state that the AFP did the same:
“He concluded that nothing in the report warranted further investigation.”
It was much the same with the NSW police: the complaints were all tagged ‘Routine’ or ‘Information Only’.
The train had left the station. It was wildly out of control. Yet those controlling the emergency brakes from three separate agencies assessed the situation to be routine and not a security threat.
All up, by the time Monis sauntered into the Lindt Café with a shotgun, there were more than 100,000 pages of reporting on him.
The sheer volume is staggering, as were the assessments that he was not a security threat. And so were the findings of the reports afterwards. Essentially, it has been determined that the intelligence assessments about Monis were reasonable.
I’m not sure to who.
From the Coroner’s report:
“After the 2008 investigation, and during the period from 2009 to November 2014, the subsequent assessments conducted by ASIO relating to Monis, and ASIO’s consideration of Monis were in my view, adequate and appropriate.”
“I consider that the treatment and management of the National Security Hotline reports by ASIO in the period between their first receipt and the siege, including their triage, was adequate and appropriate.”
And from the Martin Place Siege report:
“Overall, the Review has found that the judgments made by government agencies were reasonable and that the information that should have been available to decision-makers was available.”
It is really something to ponder. And, almost as proof that the Coroner didn’t, couldn’t and wouldn’t even believe his own report, he then went on the recommend an entire new agency to conduct reviews of individuals like Monis: the Fixated Threat Assessment Centre mentioned above.
Implicit in that recommendation is an acknowledgement that even Blind Freddy can see: the agencies in place failed to make the right assessments about Monis. They had become so used to the warning signs that he was letting off at increasingly frequent intervals that they failed to provide the assessments that they should have.
If the reports are useful at identifying anything at all, it is that the threat of terrorism in Australia is so common that it is now merely considered routine.
Australians should be horrified.
Furthermore, given attacks in Australia and around the world are all too frequently carried out by those known to the authorities, what is the point of this knowledge?
Why on earth do we have an intelligence system that can clock up 100,000 pages of reporting on a guy and yet do nothing but watch as the train wreck unfolds. That is exactly what happened at the Lindt Café.
And it will happen again.
The three system failures outlined above have occurred for one reason: we are at war but no one wants to acknowledge it.
The immigration system is acting like there is no war and letting the enemy in. The justice system is trying combatants as if they were petty criminals and letting the enemy out. And the intelligence system is assessing that all of this is routine when it clearly borders much closer to insanity.
So now the government is chasing its tail to establish a new intel centre to provide a holistic assessment of an individual when ASIO should already do this and had all the reporting to do so.
It would be much better for all concerned if the government instead undertook a holistic assessment of the threat posed by the Islamic community. No one is doing that at all.
But until that occurs, expect more train wrecks headed our way…
Today the State Coroner of New South Wales handed down his findings and recommendations into the Lindt Café terrorist attack.
The version released to the public consists of 472 carefully written pages. As the Coroner made clear when handing down his report, it was not about assigning blame but is rather focussed on addressing problems to prevent them from occurring again in the future.
That’s understandable. But, as a result, don’t expect any blunt assessment of the failures.
And there needs to be a blunt assessment. Australians are not so concerned with careers and the niceties of the legal system. Rather, they want to have confidence in the ability of the various state and Commonwealth agencies to protect them.
The Lindt Café terrorist attack should never have occurred. It only did so because of three system-wide failures in immigration, intelligence and the administration of justice. I’ll get to those tomorrow.
Today let’s focus on the Coroner’s findings.
They are important but don’t really help much. They deal with issues that occur after an attack, rather than recommending what should be done to stop them happening at all.
In other words, this report does not examine the big picture. Hence the failure to make any useful findings that will address systemic failures in immigration, intelligence or the administration of justice.
So what are the key findings?
It was a terrorist attack
Firstly, in news that will surprise no one, it was found that the terrorist attack was actually a terrorist attack. Well it might surprise Mike Carlton and his mates. He tweeted this out on the day of the ‘incident’:
It is right and good to remember the victims of the Lindt cafe. But it was not a “terrorist attack.” It was the deranged act of a psychopath
— Mike Carlton (@MikeCarlton01) December 15, 2015
Police should have acted sooner
Secondly, and unsurprisingly, it was also found that police should have stormed the café after hostages stampeded out in the wee hours of the morning. They had formed the view that death was imminent and took their chances running. Man Haron Monis responded by firing at the last escapee. It was the first shot of the night and the clock had just ticked over to 2:03 am.
That is when police should have gone in. However, they did not.
Monis then ordered café manager, Tori Johnson, to his knees. They were to be the last ten minutes of his life. Monis also fired another shot, prompting another petrified hostage to risk it all and flee.
Following the shot Tori Johnson flinched, fell forward and then resumed his kneeling position. Finally, after 600 excruciating seconds, Monis executed him.
It was at this point that police belatedly intervened. Unfortunately, Katrina Dawson was killed by a ricocheting police bullet.
The Coroner was careful not to lay blame on any officer or in relation to police equipment, instead recommending the police investigate advances in weaponry and develop more coordinated strategies with Defence.
The Coroner also recommended that the police develop new policies that will allow them to identify ‘triggers’ for action well in advance of the execution of hostages. He was being nice. Reading between the lines it is a critical swipe at the policies in place at the time and police leadership.
For these reasons it is highly likely that Army Special Forces will take ownership of the response to similar attacks in future.
Like the Coroner, I do not criticise those police who stormed the café. They did so bravely and under the belief that they may well be running towards a bomb. Furthermore, as the report makes clear, these officers were ready and waiting to go in. In fact, they had been expecting to receive the order to do so from the moment they heard that first shot.
But the order never came. It was an obvious failure.
The psychiatrist was a complete goose and out of his depth
Thirdly, the Coroner was also scathing of the advice provided to police by a consultant psychiatrist.
Incredibly, he advised police that Monis’ behaviour was not consistent Islamic State methodology. During the inquest it was found that he had no idea that the Islamic State had called for ‘lone wolf’ attacks and that he had no qualifications or experience to be providing advice about what the Islamic State might do.
It seems clear that the psychiatrist’s advice clouded perceptions of Monis and led to the view that he was unlikely to become violent. It was another obvious failure.
However, while the focus on these issues is important, it really fails to see the forest for the trees. Changes in these and other areas recommended by the Coroner will do very little to prevent another attack.
That’s because police never should have been waiting outside the Lindt Café. Systemic failures outside their control were what allowed Monis in.
The immigration system let him in. The intelligence system should have identified that he was a serious threat. And the justice system let him loose – even after he was charged with murder.
I’ll address these tomorrow.
But all Australians should know that none of the reports, inquiries or investigations have done anything to address these problems.
That’s why they continue today, almost two and half years after this attack…
It’s all rather surreal. One minute you’re a gay bloke posing in front of your naked barbie doll, all a-flutter over an Ariana Grande concert.
— Matthew James Lister (@MrMattLister) May 22, 2017
And then, the next minute, you’re the first person in the world to tweet out today’s new normal.
Huge bang in Manchester. 😱
— Matthew James Lister (@MrMattLister) May 22, 2017
Like I said, it’s all rather surreal.
It’s left many confused and questioning what the hell is going on:
— Ellie Cheetham🌙 (@elliefreyax) May 23, 2017
Huge bang & people running from Victoria station.I can see it from my balcony but nothing on news.Anyone know what is happening? #manchester
— Joanne Radcliff (@JoFamilyLaw) May 22, 2017
Have no fucking idea what that Big Bang and everyone screaming in Manchester just was but I have never shit myself so fucking much
— Shannon Sargent (@shannonsargent1) May 22, 2017
That was a loud arse bang! Any idea what it was #Manchester
— Dan Scott (@dan_scott8721) May 22, 2017
Manchester arena was that a gun shot? Wtf is going on! Never ran so fast in my life!!!
— Oliver Jones (@oliverjones31) May 22, 2017
Did I just hear something that sounded a lot like a bomb go off at the Manchester Arena? That was fucking terrifying.
— M A J I D (@Majid_K_1994) May 22, 2017
Heard a huge bang in Manchester near Victoria. We’re safe, no idea what’s going on.
— Kieran (@movingnorthuk) May 22, 2017
What the fuck was that explosion at the manchester arena? Heard it from the flat!!
— Ross Cruickshank (@RossCruicky) May 22, 2017
Does anyone know what’s happening in Manchester? Huge bang outside our apartment
— Rhian Wadsworth (@riawads3) May 22, 2017
No idea what the fucks happening at Manchester Arena but I’ve never ran out that building so quickly in my life. Hope everyone’s safe.
— M (@themewdenator) May 22, 2017
Two loud bangs heard around Manchester arena. People running out of the arena. No idea what’s going on pic.twitter.com/KaRzQckvEE
— Alan Brennan (@alanbmufc92) May 22, 2017
It may seem difficult for some to grasp, but the answer to all the ‘WTFs’ is simple: Islam.
However, not all who asked liked the response:
wtf is happening in manchester? just heard a massive explosion, loads of police, weird smell + alerts from victoria station
— salute (@saluteAUT) May 22, 2017
an explosion happened, someone is injured and people are already trying to pin it on religion. give it a fucking rest
— salute (@saluteAUT) May 22, 2017
How did we get to this point, where reality is so clear yet so wilfully ignored? I’ll do my best to explain.
The West has forgotten what we were. So we don’t know who we are. In the confusion a standover merchant muscled on into the cultural vacuum.
It’s called Islam.
And, like standover merchants generally, Islam does not play nice. Hence the attack on gay men and school girls at a concert in Manchester. Submission to Islam is lacking.
In a nutshell, that’s what has happened.
If September 11 represented something ‘new’, it’s getting pretty long in the tooth now. It took place before Facebook, before Twitter and, for those who think it is all our fault, it even occurred before the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
September 11 might have occurred this millennium, but for most millennials, it’s the way things have always been. So it might as well be something from the last millennium (which, by the way, it actually is – the first September 11 occurred in 1683 when Islamic armies tried but failed to capture Vienna, right in the centre of Europe).
For most of us, the news is a form of black entertainment; the bad stuff that happens to other people.
Unfortunately, in the post-September 11 world, there is an ever increasing chance that the 6pm news won’t be about other people. It will be about ‘us’. The ‘us’ in Toronto. Or London. Or Brussels. Or even in some sleepy backyard rural Queensland town hosting a ‘French’ backpacker.
And now the ‘us’ in Manchester.
That bomb scare probably the maddest thing I will ever witness in my life like you only see that shit on the news 😓
— Jord 🤷🏾♂️ (@J0rdWilliams) May 22, 2017
Unfortunately, we don’t only see ‘that shit’ on the news anymore. It is all around us.
Take the attacks in Sydney. Or in Melbourne. Many, many Australians have wandered through Martin Place or caught a train at Flinders Street Station. Just like in Manchester, we can sense the attacks and see the scars they have left, not just on others but on our own cities, streets and lives.
The ‘them’ on the news might just as easily have been you or me. That’s because the targets symbolised us. They were nothing more than ordinary people doing ordinary things. That is precisely why they were the targets.
Islam, as an ideology, is at war with the ordinary. It always has been and it always will be. It demands the right to replace every ounce of ordinary with Allah’s extraordinary and totalitarian dictates over all aspects of life.
There is no point trying to change this. Mohammad was not a phlegmatic hippie and that is why his religion does not reflect the mood of one. Rather, he was a warlord who believed he had divine backing to use force to impose his will on all others as he increased in power.
Hence the reality that Islam tends towards violence wherever it is growing in strength. The key difference between ‘moderates’ and ‘extremists’ is not over whether violence is moral; rather, it’s simply a disagreement over whether the legal (Sharia) conditions to justify the use of force and coercion have been met. The ‘extremists’ say yes; the ‘moderates’ say not yet.
Add in a liberal dose of violent internal disagreement over ‘authority’ and you pretty much have an understanding of everything that Islam is.
So, if there is no point trying to change Islam, the solution to the violence must found within ourselves.
Are we ready to defend ourselves? Or, like many nations, tribes and kingdoms throughout history, will we succumb, submit and kiss civilisation goodbye?
Will we let the Allah replace the ordinary?
The answer to that question is far from certain.
While borders remain open and governments fund Islam, I’d say that the answer will be no (and today’s news is that the Commonwealth has handed over $45 million to illegally promote Islam via education grants since 2000 – at just one Islamic school). This situation won’t change unless Western men put away their dolls and find something worthwhile defending. That would be our Western Christian civilisation.
It is worth defending. Doing so would make good news. However, if we are merely content to meander along from shattered concert to shattered concert, we will instead simply be the props on the next bad news story.
And given Ramadan is just a few days away, a betting man would expect to see a lot more of us on the ‘news’ in the coming days…
On Wednesday I was the second guest on Mark Latham’s Outsiders, along with 2GB’s Ben Fordham and Iranian refugee expert, Cyrous Sarang.
You can watch the entire episode below for an insight into political correctness within the Defence Force as well as an understanding of Man Haron Monis (the Lindt Cafe terrorist).
The media elite has long been controlled by the Left who hate diversity of opinion and the expression of views that challenge open borders, the destruction of the family and the growth of government power. Fortunately, the internet and new media platforms are now enabling ordinary Australians to watch, read and hear strong independent voices. That is a very good thing.
I encourage everyone to visit Mark’s webpage to see his other programs as well.
I’ll be a guest on Mark Latham’s Outsiders show tomorrow night speaking about Defence, political correctness and the attack on free speech.
You can view the show live on Mark Latham’s Facebook page here. It will run from 8-9pm EST.
The National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) is set to become an expensive flop and more evidence arrives every day that shows it will cost all Australians too much and leave those in need worse off. As I wrote yesterday, it should have been scrapped in the budget.
From today’s Australian:
In Sydney’s west, mother of three Kathryn Gilbert is stuck in a fight with the NDIS over support for her seven-year-old son Kaelab that was initially “cut in half”.
Ms Gilbert’s two other children, Tyler, 5, and Christian, 3, have autism and NDIS plans, but the situation with Kaelab was “the most concerning” after more than $10,000 in funding was cut on review last October.
“The review was a horrible experience,” Ms Gilbert said. “I was told we would have four hours to go over everything he needed but we only had 45 minutes. He lost his community support placement with Barnardos, therapy support. It was all cut. Some of it has been put back now, but not to the extent it was in the first plan.”
The best people to deal with disabilities are families. Governments can never hope to replace them and when they do the situation is inevitably worsened.
Rather than an NDIS, everyone would be better off if the government’s tax and welfare system treated all families equally – especially those where one parent gives up work to look after children.
At the moment the tax system, childcare system and welfare system is designed to punish stay-at-home mothers and treats women (the primary caregiver) like nothing more than cogs in a god called the economy.
It’s all back to front.
Catherine McGregor and I have had our differences. They are well-known.
I have been (and remain) highly critical of the transgender former Army officer.
But it is hard to disagree with large parts of McGregor’s assessment today regarding Australia’s involvement in Afghanistan.
McGregor writes in today’s Daily Telegraph:
Our Special Forces fought superbly in Afghanistan. Both the Special Air Service Regiment and the Commandos engaged in sustained, brutal close combat and inflicted serious damage on the enemy.
But their efforts were undermined by the lack of any clear national strategic goals. In fact, Australia’s core mission in Afghanistan was really military diplomacy.
We were a minor partner and never had a clearly defined strategic objective other than being seen to support the Americans…
…I know hundreds of veterans of this war. To the last man and woman they are proud of their service and most would go back tomorrow. They did us proud. But very few of them understand what has been achieved and even fewer really understood what their exact role there was…
…But I query the wisdom of a long-term commitment to a short-term nation. Without the presence of significant numbers of US troops, Afghanistan will fall to the Taliban.
We won every battle in Afghanistan and Iraq but lost the wars because we failed to understand the enemy. McGregor may disagree with my assessment, but I believe it is entirely due to a new politically-correct agenda within Defence, as I detailed in this video back in 2014:
Afghanistan is likely to fall to the Taliban (even the main Australian base has come close to falling) and will became a haven for fleeing Islamic State fighters as well. We should expect some attempt to build an Islamic State 2.0 (even though it seems unlikely that this will gain the support of the Taliban), just as we should also expect intra-Islamic warfare between jihadi groups, government forces, tribal armies and rebels all arguing over who has the rightful authority to rule and impose their version of Sharia law.
The only way to change this is for a lengthy, large-scale military presence with a mission to replace the barbaric culture that rules there. It would require occupation over successive generations; essentially a form of modern colonialism.
For many reasons, there are no nations in the world prepared to do this.
The best option for Australia is to:
- keep the problem over there – that means stopping immigration here, and
- assist efforts to solve the problem over there – that means targeted operations to degrade militant groups, humanitarian support to assist the inevitable refugees to live in their own lands and government support for the bad guys that we can live with (without doing stupid things like promoting, building and funding Islam).
It is a strategy of containment.
Going into Iraq was a mistake. Pulling out entirely was a complete disaster. For our own broader security and to prevent another ugly mess, we should not repeat all the mistakes of Iraq in Afghanistan.
Next week the official inquest report into the Lindt Café terrorist attack will be handed down.
It is not expected to be complimentary of the New South Wales Police. But, in news that will surprise no one, it will determine that the terrorist attack was, ahem, a terrorist attack.
The morning after the attack I wrote that it was a terrorist attack, that it was entirely predictable and that we should expect more of it. It was not really rocket science. But hey, it needed to be said and that post has now been shared over 17,000 times. Ordinary Australians ‘get it’.
Since then a number of other Australians have lost their lives, including in Melbourne at the hands of a deranged madmen shouting ‘Allahu akbar’ while police watched as he mowed down victims in the heart of the city.
Just like the Lindt Café terrorist attack, the police and the authorities attempted to claim that the Bourke Street massacre had nothing to do with Islam. And then the killer declared his allegiance to Islam and the Koran in court.
What a joke.
The New South Wales Police hierarchy response to the Lindt Café terrorist attack was to send officers out to protect the Islamic community from a mythical violent backlash. The same commanders were not so keen on sending the brave and waiting units on the ground into the Lindt Café, even after Man Haron Monis fired shots and then ordered Tori Johnson to his knees. He died seven minutes later.
It was disgraceful and it sent a clear message to us: ordinary Australians are considered more dangerous than murderous Islamic killers.
About the only good news to come out of this sordid affair is that Catherine Burn was passed over for the post of New South Wales Police Commissioner and then dumped as the state’s top counter-terrorism cop. Her contribution to the Lindt Café terrorist attack is one of the lowlights of this sordid matter: she deleted text messages about the siege and is best remembered for the fact that she was the ‘Specialist Operations’ commander at the time, responsible for counter-terrorism operations, and that under her watch she issued no directions and key equipment was unavailable – having been out of service for over three years.
What a joke.
Unfortunately, Burn’s fall from grace does not mean that the rot has been cut from the New South Wales Police.
On 16 November last year I attended the Lismore Police Station to lodge a complaint about emails sent to Islamic organisation regarding my personal details.
Clearly, this is an important security issue.
However, I was told by a young female police officer (whose name I will withhold) that:
- there was no reason to be concerned that Islamic organisations had been provided my residential address because Islam was peaceful,
- I had nothing to fear,
- the Lindt Café terrorist attack was not a terrorist attack, and
- the police station had been sent an official memo advising that it was not a terrorist attack.
I was immensely frustrated, as you can imagine. This police officer wouldn’t know what year Mohamed was born, let alone what he taught. And yet she was lecturing me even though I had worked as an intelligence analyst focused on Islamic militants, had deployed on operations three times, was awarded by the United States President for my work and had qualified as an Arabic linguist after an intense study of Arabic language and culture.
Unfortunately, I was also not surprised. It was this kind of wilful ignorance that led to Man Haron Monis being allowed to stay in Australia in the first place. It also led to the woeful decision to grant him bail after he had been charged with murder and found guilty of using a carriage service to harass, menace and cause offence to the families of slain Australian Diggers in Afghanistan.
Sadly, it means that even after the Lindt Café terrorist attack and even after a coronial inquest set to embarrass the pants of the New South Wales Police, no lessons have actually been learnt.
The same dangerous complacency and disgusting ineptitude remains in place.
So, as I said the day after the Lindt Café terrorist attack, expect more bloodshed. It is surely coming.
And it will, primarily, be the fault of those ‘protecting’ us.
My original article on the Lindt Café terrorist attack can be found here.
Cast your mind back. Not too far.
Just a little.
Remember? It was the year Kevin Rudd made his short-lived comeback. For those who don’t know who the prime minister is today, let alone three years ago, it was also the year that analogue television was switched off in Australia.
Back then Wayne Swan was in charge of the nation’s piggy bank. He promised a land flowing with milk and honey and budget surpluses. True, Wayno never got to forecast what would happen right about now but he did have a stab at guestimating how rich we would all be last year.
He told us that in the 2016/17 financial year, the Commonwealth would have a surplus of $13.8 billion.
Australians laughed him out of office.
And then along came Smokin’ Joe Hockey. He learnt a little, but not a lot, off Wayne.
Joe learnt that forecasting a surplus in 2016/17 was fraught with danger. So he said we’d lose $4 billion last year and then made the silly, silly mistake of believing his own press and simply transferred the promised surplus to this year.
According to Joe Hockey’s first budget, back in May 2014, 2017/18 was supposed to see a surplus of $4.9 billion.
A year later and Joe was racking up the red pen and white out but not much else. All of a sudden, 2017/18 turned from a surplus to a deficit of $5.6 billion. By the time Scott Morrison stepped into Hockey’s shoes, it had all gone to custard.
As it turns out, Morrison now thinks this year will see about $20 billion added to the national credit card. Let’s hope he’s not merely being hopeful. Over the last four years the budget has blown out, on average, by $13 billion more than promised on budget night.
But if Sco Mo is even remotely right, it’s a turnaround of $25 billion in four short years since the planning began for this budget.
How does this happen? Firstly because the guys in government can’t count. Secondly because they don’t count on anyone else taking notice. And, thirdly, because last year they spent more than they planned to the tune of an extra $17 million every day.
Every. Single. Day.
If a school kid lost their lunch money they’d be disciplined. If a politician loses the nation’s fortune they expect to be re-elected.
Scott Morrison, on any analysis, seems to be less intent on fixing the budgetary crisis and more focused on simply doing what Swan and Hockey did: delivering deficits and promising surpluses at some distant point in the future.
He’s now telling us that we’ll not only be able to reach the land of milk, honey and surpluses in 2019/2020, but that along the way we’ll be able to conjure up extra billions to pay for the National Disability Insurance Scheme (NDIS) as well.
This program doesn’t even hit the budgetary books until next year. But when it does it will consist of an overnight $22 billion whack to the bottom line. Predictably for a massive government program, this one is already plagued with faults that have seen people with disabilities worse off thanks to the government’s ‘help’.
Morrison simply cannot be trusted here. Instead of delivering a surplus, he’s put Australia on a path that will see it eternally wander the Deficit Desert.
It’s time for some truths.
The first truth is that the government doesn’t have a problem raking in the dough. The average weekly wage in Australia has risen by 7% since 2013. The government’s weekly wage has grown at double that pace in that time. ‘Earnings’ (a politically correct label for taxes) have grown 14% since Wayne Swan’s last budget.
So that means we don’t need any new taxes at all and should even be able to afford tax cuts. But the Commonwealth has squandered the common wealth on unaffordable election promises like the NDIS.
And this is another hard truth that must be stomached. We simply cannot afford this program and the countless others like it. It is entirely wasteful, will not achieve its objectives and, even if it did, will send us bankrupt.
Last week Scott Morrison had an opportunity to be different, bold and useful. Options abounded, from selling off the ABC to redesigning tax rates to give single-income families a fair go. Instead he chose to set course for the same old, same old and locked in Labor’s reckless spending.
There is no difference between the philosophies of the red team and the blue team. They are headed in the same direction. The only choice they offer is one of personality.
Given the personalities on sale consist of Malcolm Turnbull and Bill Shorten, one can only wonder at the polls that show so many Australians are still prepared to vote for either of these parties.
It’s clear that Fairfax is dying. And that’s sad – its daily offerings of looney leftism have kept conservative mirth burning for years.
There is a way to save it. Just sell the ABC.
It’s a double bonus for conservatives. So become a ‘Conservative Friend of Fairfax’ and sign the petition urging Scott Morrison to sell the ABC to those who claim they love it so much…
Save Fairfax and sell the ABCRead the petition
|104||Lee S.||3138||May 23, 2017|
|103||Rodney Z.||7322||May 22, 2017|
|102||Dave B.||6163||May 21, 2017|
|101||Aaron D.||3198||May 17, 2017|
|100||Matthew C.||3183||May 17, 2017|
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|79||Bernie G.||4125||May 05, 2017|
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|75||Raymond C.||2530||May 05, 2017|
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|57||Julie M.||2470||May 04, 2017|
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|55||Christiane P.||4017||May 04, 2017|